PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. Any off-year election is going to be a referendum on Joe Biden, which is why its going to be a really difficult year for Democrats in places like Wisconsin, said former Wisconsin radio host Charlie Sykes, an early proponent of Johnson during his 2010 bid whos turned critical of the senator and the Trump-inspired GOP. while Evers' approval rating remains above water. The question is whether or not hell focus on the winning message, whether or not people will respond, or whether those negative numbers are so baked in, he said. Barnes and Johnson have attacked each other as being too politically extreme and out of touch. 1990 FLEER. Senator Ron Johnson against his top challengers, which show Johnson a bit behind three of the four Democratic challengers, and a similar matchup of incumbent Democratic Gov. The poll is hardly an outlier. Johnson is widely considered the most vulnerable Republican senator up for re-election this year, but some see a path to victory built on Bidens own unpopularity and traditional midterm dynamics that favor the party outside the White House. Her net approval rating in the Morning Consult poll has been on the decline over the past two years, but she still has a solid +13 net approval rating. Similar to a senators PARS score, a governors PARG score can also help us get a better sense of which governors running for reelection in 2022 are best equipped to swim against the partisan tide of their states. All in all, 39 percent of independent voters now strongly disapprove of Johnson, nearly five times as many as those who strongly approve. But a lot has changed in the last few months. Why has the electorate increasingly polarized over Johnson? In July, in our last survey, President Biden's approval rating was 33 percent, one of his worst results of the cycle. Become a member for $9/month. In September, among likely voters, Johnson received 49% and Barnes 48%. Mandela Barnes is the choice of 46%. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is deeply unpopular among his own constituents, according to a new poll released Monday. At this point, very few people dont have an impression of him, Wikler said. Hey NieWiederKrieg, I think a part of your brain must be dead. Pollapalooza (249) All rights reserved. Johnson has come under fire in recent months for his votes to cut taxes for himself and his very rich donors while backing "most of" National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Rick Scott's 11-point "Rescue America" proposal which includes a large tax hike for more than 100 million lower-income and retired Americans and fighting against efforts to make child care more affordable. Wikler said every Democratic candidate has a slightly different path to victory and touted Democrats successful efforts to reduce Republican margins in the states deep red areas, swing the suburbs and increase the partys standing in urban communities. Sign-in to take full advantage of your membership, including an ad-free website and improved browsing experience. Some 83% of Republicans polled said they are absolutely certain to vote in the November general election, over 82% of Democrats and 66% of independents. And a high number of respondents who dont know which candidate they favor 36% in the primary for senator and 32% in the primary for governor allows lots of room for both races to change. Membership, which includes a host of perks, including an ad-free website, tickets to marquee events like Summerfest, the Wisconsin State Fair and the Florentine Opera, a better photo browser and access to members-only, behind-the-scenes tours, starts at $9/month. Approval Ratings (130) If youre running in a purple state and its a Republican year, none of that matters., Eli Yokley is a senior data reporter at Morning Consult covering politics and campaigns. In fact, the only current senator with a lower approval rating is Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has infamously blocked hundreds of popular pieces of legislation. RCP Senate Ratings, Map. But Barnes' campaign has largely focused on economic issues, highlighting his middle-class upbringing in Milwaukee and contrasting it with Johnson's status as one of the richest members of the Senate. But Democratic Gov. In . Republican Ron Johnson of Wisconsin had the third lowest approval rating (37%) among U.S. The top 10 Senate seats that are most likely to flip to the other party. Sen. Ron Johnson is commonly referred to as one of the country's most unpopular U.S. senators. And you might expect Democratic Gov. Since then, President Biden has been sworn in, and with dual wins in Georgia, Democrats went . In fact, senators from the party out of power (i.e., the party opposed to the sitting president . Doug Jones (36) If the magic of 2016 (for Johnson) was to convert dont knows to favorables, this year it looks like people who didnt have an opinion are being converted into unfavorables, said Franklin. With Florida currently struggling with one of the highest rates of COVID-19 in the country, slightly more than half of voters (51 percent) disapprove of Governor Ron DeSantis' handling of the response to the coronavirus, while 46 percent approve, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of registered voters in Florida released today. Nationally, Sen. Joe Manchin is best known as a thorn in liberals side because he has opposed President Bidens agenda on the social safety net, voting rights, abortion and more. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch. Sykes agreed the Democratic Party has what it takes to pull off a victory, but warned that a lot of what happens in November may be out of their control. Steve Sisolak of Nevada also has a distinct personal brand that could help him weather a tough reelection campaign in purple Nevada. There are far fewer voters than in the past who are undecided about Johnson, which could make it harder for him to improve his image over the course of this campaign. PPP recently conducted a poll for 314 Action in Wisconsin and found that the state unsurprisingly continues to be closely divided politically about a lot of things but not its feelings about Ron Johnson. "First of all, I'm not a polarizing figure. At this time last week, 42.2 percent approved and 52.5 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of -10.3 points). The gap between how Republicans and Democrats view him was large then, but its even larger now. No matter who wins the 2020 presidential election, they wont be able to get much done if their party doesnt also win the Senate. Since 2019, his net favorability rating in the WOW counties has dropped from an average of plus 41 to plus-8 in the last four Marquette polls combined. 2023 Morning Consult, All Rights Reserved. People are more polarized over Johnson by party, by ideology, by gender and other measures. For this analysis, Franklin and I examined Johnsons popularity with different demographic and political groups: men, women, old, young, liberal, conservative, urban, rural, suburban, etc. Gerald Ford 1974-77. But a comparison between then and now also points to the challenges Johnson faces. Cmon! Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, leads Johnson 51% to 44%, up from a narrow two-point lead he held in June, when polls showed Barnes had the support of 46% voters in the battleground state, which voted for former President Donald Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden in 2020. Trump is quite unpopular here. Asked what Johnson is doing to improve his standing, spokeswoman Alexa Henning said his supporters discount mainstream media outlets and see through the lies and distortions of their false attacks. She said the senator had received strong encouragement to forgo his two-term pledge and run for re-election from Wisconsinites who share his grave concerns over the direction Democrats are taking our country.. She pointed to tax breaks he supported, that benefited big donors to his campaigns. The reelection races of Sens. This is less true for governors, however. Democratic Gov. Let's get into the rationale for these changes. But its worth remembering that Lucy has held this football in front of Democrats before. Have questions? Finally, the fault lines in the electorate are deeper today than they were back then. Around a quarter of Wisconsin Republicans (24 percent) disapprove of his job performance. Democratic Governor Laura Kelly ran for re-election to a second term. Lt. Gov. In that five-month stretch, he averaged a net rating of minus 8. Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, leads Johnson 51% to 44%, up from a narrow two-point lead he held in June, when polls showed Barnes had the support of 46% voters in the . "I think when using federal tax dollars, you want to spend those in the most efficient way, and if it's more efficient, more effective to spend those in other states, I don't have a real problem with that. His race is expected to be very competitive. Ron Johnson Dramatically Underperforms in First Finance Report Since Announcing for Reelection - Lt. Gov. Everss PARG is just +1, suggesting perceptions of him are strongly dependent on partisanship. But that isnt likely to be enough in a state that produces such narrow margins of victory. Tony Evers of Wisconsin may be more at the mercy of the national mood. Unlike this trio, there are some senators whose electoral fates probably do hinge on the presidential race. Mandela Barnes in a swing-state face off that could become one of the most competitive races of the midterms. Another may be Johnsons increasingly outspoken support for Donald Trump, the ultimate lightning rod in American politics. According to a, As hate crimes against Asian Americans have, Billionaire Elon Musks quest to buy Twitter isnt yet official, but if he is successful, he said this week he will. Jared Polis to be vulnerable in a Republican-leaning midterm in D+6 Colorado, but his net approval rating is 16 points higher than that, giving him a nice cushion in case the national environment puts his state in play. The American Independent is the No. And how effective is what they plan to do to whoever the eventual nominee is?. President Joe Biden narrowly carried Wisconsin in the 2020 election. @eyokley, Download Fastest Growing Brands 2022 Report, Sen. Ron Johnson speaks about the origins of COVID-19 at a press conference in Washington, D.C., in June 2021. Partisan Lean (5). By Eli Yokley. Learn more. In October, Johnson said that the top 1% of earners already pay "pretty close to a fair share. This raises the question of whether Johnson in 2022 can replicate his 2016 vote in the WOW counties, or whether he needs to make up any erosion there in increasingly red rural Wisconsin. More:'He doesn't understand medicine is a science': Ron Johnson escalates 'guerrilla war' against medical establishment, More:Here are the 11 Democrats in Wisconsin's 2022 U.S. Senate race who are seeking to unseat Ron Johnson. But hes got to execute on a winning message, and if we look at the numbers and the data, we know he hasnt been executing on a winning message..
Prineville Obituaries,
Private Campgrounds Near Dale Hollow Lake,
Articles R